More Hispanics
may have voted for President Bush in 2004, but the perception
that the Hispanic vote has shifted is misleading.
Much has been made about the apparent swing of Hispanic
voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.
Various exit polls claim that, nationally, 44 percent of
Hispanic voters chose Bush over Sen. John Kerry. By
comparison, 35 percent voted for Bush over then-Vice President
Al Gore in 2000.
There is no unanimity, however, in this figure. Zogby
International, for instance, disputes the 2004 total. The
polling firm believes that the correct percentage for Hispanic
support for Bush was somewhere between 33 percent and 38
percent.
But whatever the exact number, we need to get over the
assumption that there is one monolithic Hispanic community
with a common historical experience and political agenda. Some
Hispanics have emigrated from Latin America, while others have
come from the Caribbean, Europe or elsewhere.
What's more, the Bush campaign focused on battleground
states such as New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Florida that
have sizable Hispanic populations but are not exactly bastions
of liberalism.
On this year's ballot, Arizona voters passed one of the
most Draconian anti-immigrant initiatives in recent history.
And Florida became a concern for the Bush team, which had
relied on anti-Castro Cubans, only because of an increase in
non-Cuban Hispanics in central Florida, particularly in
fast-growing Orlando.
What may be a cause for concern for the Democratic Party,
however, is that some polls show that in nonbattleground
states, the Hispanic vote for Kerry was down 12 percent from
2000.
According to political pundits, the moral-values factor
supposedly weighed heavily in the Republicans' favor since
most Hispanics are Catholics. But the tilt toward the
Republicans may have more to do with increasing numbers of new
Hispanic arrivals who may never have gotten the dignity of a
union job or benefited from federally funded programs. These
are benefits traditionally received under Democratic policies.
The Republican tilt may also be explained by Hispanic
small-business owners who won't come to grips with the fact
that the Bush administration is all about big business.
And if nothing else, the Republican inroads reflect how
well Hispanics are assimilating into America's misinformed,
attack-ad political culture.
Increasing numbers of Hispanics, like the rest of
mainstream America, have apparently capitulated to the Bush
administration's post-9/11 fear-mongering. They have bought
the claim that Bush is a worthy military commander-in-chief --
even though their sons and daughters continue to return home
dead or wounded from Iraq in growing numbers.
And many Hispanics, like their Anglo-American counterparts,
are not making the connection between tax cuts for the rich
and increasing unemployment, decreasing real wages, lack of
health insurance and a spiraling federal deficit.
The trends revealed by some exit polls do not necessarily
mean that Hispanics have permanently shifted to the GOP. They
mean that many Hispanics, like mainstream Americans, have been
duped into voting against their own interests.
Ed Morales is a contributor to
the Village Voice and Newsday in New York.
